On 17 September 2026 the Minister for Home Affairs, Tony Burke, told the National Press Club that Budget net overseas migration (NOM) forecasts would be treated as targets the Government intends to meet. The accompanying media release ties the next stage of policy to delivering **245,000** NOM in 2026–27 and **225,000** in 2027–28.
The same day, the Australian Bureau of Statistics overseas-migration release showed NOM of about **292,100** people in the year to March 2026. The ministerial media release rounded that print to 292,000 and said it was 47 per cent below the post-COVID peak. NOM is a population flow (arrivals minus departures over 12 months). It is not the same number as the permanent Migration Program planning level of 185,000 places in 2026–27.
In the Press Club Q&A, the Minister said NOM had for most of his political life been treated as a Budget forecast, and that public debate in the last couple of years had recast it as a target — a change he linked to housing pressures and to the need for extra policy levers.
The media release lists the next stage of measures. Delivery dates and legal instruments should be checked on official pages as they appear. Announced items include:
- •Strengthening compliance so people without a valid visa leave Australia
- •Updating Ministerial Direction 119 so skilled processing priorities cover healthcare, construction, education, law enforcement, defence, resources, agriculture, aquaculture and fishing
- •Improving student-visa integrity by stopping visa hopping and restricting secondary applicants on most student visas
- •Action against rogue migration agents who knowingly support applications without merit
- •A “no further stay” condition on all visitor visas so visitor visas are not used as a pathway to extend stay
- •Updating Ministerial Direction 110 on character and related public-interest settings, including stronger protection language for children who are victims of crime and for victims of domestic and family violence
- •Changing the Working Holiday Maker program so years two and three use a ballot, with the existing regional-work requirement still needed to qualify, and Working Holiday processing times stabilised at three months
On the Working Holiday ballots, the Press Club speech is more specific than the media release. The Minister said the year-two ballot would be limited to **45,000** places (57,000 people qualified last year) and the year-three ballot to **5,000** (31,000 last year). Regional work to *qualify* for the ballot — 88 days for year two, six months for year three — would not change. Those figures come from the speech transcript, not from a separate legislative instrument published the same day.
For students, the speech distinguished legitimate study-to-work pathways (study in a shortage, graduate visa, employer sponsorship, permanent residence) from “visa hopping”: remaining onshore by chaining courses, using appeals, or lodging protection claims without a genuine basis. The policy intent is to close the latter while leaving the former intact. Secondary-applicant restrictions on most student visas were announced in the media release; the detailed instrument should be read once Home Affairs publishes it.
None of this, by itself, changes the 65-point minimum to lodge a SkillSelect EOI or the 2026–27 permanent program planning levels. Invitation rounds, state nomination, and employer sponsorship still run inside those separate settings.
If you are deciding between visa subclasses, use the skilled visa guides and EOI pool on this site, and treat the migration simulator as a stylised macroeconomic comparison of NOM paths — not an official forecast. Always verify the current rules on the Department of Home Affairs website.