Home Affairs migration package, 2025–2050
Policy note · Burke, National Press Club, 17 Sep 2026
- ·NOM 245k then 225k (from ABS 292.1k)
- ·WHM ballot 45k second-year / 5k third-year (from 57k / 31k) — composition narrative, not a separate stock engine
- ·Student dependants restricted; visa-hopping curtailed
- ·Overstayer compliance; visitor “no further stay”
- ·Skilled list: construction, health, education, enforcement, defence, agriculture
- ·Delivered by ministerial direction
Re-solve from the 2025 jump-off
WHM 45k / 5k · HA student share 27% · skill tilt 0.85 · One Nation cap 130k.
Cards show policy minus current, undiscounted real 2025 dollars. Green means the signed move is better for that metric (rent easing is down).
Home Affairs · 10-year (2035)
Cumulative GDP
−$379 bn
Avg GDP / capita
−$194
Cumulative fiscal
−$18 bn
Rent index
−2.5%
Home Affairs · 25-year (2050)
Cumulative GDP
−$3,107 bn
Avg GDP / capita
−$298
Cumulative fiscal
−$89 bn
Rent index
−13.6%
One Nation · 25-year (2050)
Cumulative GDP
−$7,662 bn
Avg GDP / capita
−$840
Cumulative fiscal
−$215 bn
Rent index
−31.5%
- Current NOM
- Home Affairs
- One Nation
- Current NOM
- Home Affairs
- One Nation
- Current NOM
- Home Affairs
- One Nation
- Current NOM
- Home Affairs
- One Nation
- Current NOM
- Home Affairs
- One Nation
- Current · construction
- Home Affairs · construction
- Current · health
- Home Affairs · health
2050 labour shares — Home Affairs vs current
| Sector | Current | Home Affairs |
|---|---|---|
| Construction / housing | 12.7% | 15.0% |
| Health / aged care | 15.0% | 18.3% |
| Education exports | 5.7% | 4.4% |
| General industry | 66.7% | 62.3% |
Stylised ABS/Treasury/AIHW-order-of-magnitude projection of Australia, 2025–2050. Not an official forecast. Three NOM paths share the 2025 jump-off; policy divergence starts in 2026. Nested CES production with capital deepening; education exports are a satellite and are not added to GDP. Cumulative GDP and fiscal totals are undiscounted real 2025 dollars. Temporary-visa stocks are not modelled; NOM is a flow only. Sliders re-solve all three scenarios from the shared 2025 jump-off. Cumulative GDP and fiscal totals are undiscounted.